The beginning of October sparked chatter about a potential shift in dry van rates, suggesting a meaningful movement in pricing. While data from DAT showed a slight uptick, adjusting for fuel costs, Professor Jason Miller of Michigan State cautioned against excessive optimism.
Miller emphasized that any movement in rates must be viewed against fundamental economic indicators, noting that market cycles over the past two decades have overwhelmingly been driven by demand-side phenomena, rather than supply-side shocks.
“People see non-existent patterns, pay too much attention to exciting events and too little to familiar events, accept data readily as confirming their expectations, interpret competition or talk about causation as evidence that they can they can control events, attribute good results to their own actions, and blame bad results um on chance or other influences that they had no control over.” — Professor Jason Miller
For the truckload market to truly recover, sustained systemwide increases in demand are required to push enough carriers toward full utilization, forcing more freight onto the spot market. Currently, demand remains insufficient to initiate a significant bull market.
While the full truckload sector is characterized by intense fragmentation—a trend that has increased rather than decreased over the past decade—the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) market operates under strict pricing discipline. The Host highlighted the stark contrast:
“I love to just make the pretty extreme like contrast between what happens when we have less than 100 players serving an entire marketplace versus hundreds of thousands of players in the full truckload market, right? It's much messier.” — Host
With the departure of a certain pricing wild card (Yellow), the remaining LTL carriers have demonstrated incredible pricing discipline, focusing on more profitable shipments in the 500 to 2,500-pound range, and are content to shed heavier 8,000- to 9,000-pound shipments to the truckload space. LTL carriers, having asset-heavy, consistent networks and a meticulous understanding of their operating costs, can maintain highly predictable general rate increases (GRIs). Shippers should watch LTL shipment and tonnage counts closely, as increases there will signal when more freight volume is truly entering the system.
Economic uncertainty remains the dominant theme, severely impacting long-term investment decisions. Miller noted that until this uncertainty resolves itself, companies find it difficult to make "hard-to-reverse investments".
A major component of this instability is tariffs and trade policy. Miller estimates that 95% of the current uncertainty stems from tariffs. Companies are uncertain about future HTS codes and what upcoming geopolitical moves—such as potential changes to the heavy truck situation or future policies regarding China—will mean for pricing. This lack of clarity forces businesses into a state of indecision.
“We need to commit to tariffs in one direction or the other. Either roll the darn things back and say this was actually a bad idea and we're sorry, or just go for it and say we are not changing pace, and that is the challenge is being stuck in the middle is actually the worst thing for the economy.” — Professor Jason Miller
This pause on investment impacts freight demand directly. For instance, single-family housing permits have fallen 10% since March because builders are unsure of material costs and labor supply. Globally, even countries like China are facing deflationary cycles and unprecedented automation, adding layers of complexity to global supply chain decision-making.
Looking ahead to 2026, Professor Miller forecasts that a meaningful market recovery is unlikely until at least the second quarter. The key determining factor for next year’s freight market lies in the housing complex.
For things to improve significantly, new single-family construction must increase substantially, and existing home sales must rebound. The residential construction sector generates immense freight activity, and without the housing market "on thawing," sustained growth in freight volume is improbable.
While there is some reserve capacity on the supply side—including individuals who have CDLs but are currently not driving—the overall magnitude of the next expansion is expected to be modest. Miller’s base case prediction for 2026 contract rates suggests low to mid single-digit increases (around 3% to 6% year-over-year), characterizing this as an adjustment for operating costs rather than a true bull market surge.
We are unlikely to see anything resembling the magnitude of the 2018 or 2021 freight surges because there is no clear source for sustained demand increase. Though specific sectors like AI data center construction are booming, key freight-generating industries such as paper manufacturing remain depressed, producing less freight than they have since the global financial crisis.
The advice for carriers is clear:
“I tell you, don't really get excited until as soon as Q2 of next year.” — Professor Jason Miller
For transportation professionals, monitoring housing activity, industrial production data (including paper, plastics, and lumber), and the stability of trade policies are the critical tasks for gauging the market’s true direction.