The recent Journal of Commerce Inland Distribution Conference 2025 in Chicago provided a vital platform for industry leaders to share insights into the broader supply chain. A key topic of discussion focused on the prolonged downturn in the freight market and its profound impact on midsize asset carriers.
Joining the conversation was Ed Burns of Burns Logistics and TruSygnal, an outsourced sales agency specializing in being carrier advocates and helping them find direct shipper freight. Ed’s company also created TruSygnal, a tool for shippers and carriers to connect for contract freight.
The Financial Strain on America’s Fleets
Ed, who engages in daily conversations with the leadership of midsize fleets—many of which are multi-generation family businesses celebrating 75 or even 100 years in operation—painted a stark picture of the current economic reality.
The industry is facing extremely thin margins, a reality Ed’s father described simply: "Well, we're in a pennies business. We're in a pennies business." In this context, making five cents of profit on the dollar as a truckload carrier is considered highly successful; currently, most are losing a couple of pennies on the dollar and have been doing so for a long time.
These carriers, who generally run healthy businesses and understand operations well, have already executed strategies to operate more efficiently. As Ed noted, "there's really no more blood to squeeze from this stone" without sacrificing critical elements like safety and maintenance.
The Line in the Sand
We are now in the third year of this down market. In the initial years, many fleets accepted rate cuts to retain the volumes and incumbency they had earned during higher markets. However, that attitude is changing.
Ed has recently heard a defiant new stance from fleet leaders: "If I go out of business, I'm doing it on my terms.". This means carriers are now refusing to take freight that loses money, setting rates necessary to run a modestly profitable business, and being willing to walk away if shippers don't accept them.
Samantha noted that the line in the sand has gotten much firmer because carriers cannot continue running unprofitable freight for six more months while waiting for the market to change. Optimistic predictions heard at the conference suggest the inflection point may not arrive until Q2 of 2026.
Safety and the Price of Cheap Freight
The desperation driven by financial duress has led some businesses to make poor choices, exacerbating problems in safety and compliance. When fleets cut corners to reduce costs, they create an unfair advantage against those who maintain proper insurance, pay drivers fairly, and keep their equipment maintained.
Samantha highlighted the difficulty: "A fleet that says no to cutting corners and is committed to safe and doing the right thing cannot compete with a rate like that.".
Ed referenced a friend whose box trucks were being loaded with drivers living in their vehicle—using a camping cot and a five-gallon bucket with toilet paper in the back—a sign of the significantly lower rates and standards of living supporting that "cheap freight".
The Looming Rate Reckoning
For shippers who have stuck by their carrier partners and paid fair rates, future price increases may be modest. However, for those who continually pushed rates down, a significant correction is expected.
Ed predicted that as soon as the market makes it economically possible, "there will be a bloodbath of rate increases". When considering inflation, which has been flat or decreasing in freight, real costs continue to rise.
For carriers to succeed long-term, Ed emphasized the importance of network discipline. Successful carriers are those who know which freight fits their network and leads to profitability, rather than just chasing any load that "pays".
The Power of Communication
As the market prepares for a shift, communication is the most valuable tool for both carriers and shippers.
For carriers, the advice is clear: do not assume shippers understand your business. If an increase is needed, carriers must articulate precisely why—explaining the impact of rising insurance or maintenance costs.
Ed noted that if a shipper is going to receive an increase, their first question will be "Why?" He advised carriers: "Explain the answer to the question before they can ask it.".
For shippers, Samantha and Ed urged them to value relationships over transactional convenience. While it may seem easier to rely on texts or emails, maintaining direct calls with providers saves time in the long run. Shippers who have been shortsighted and consistently gone for the cheapest option risk blowing their budgets when the market inevitably swings.
Ultimately, the freight industry is a service-based, relationship-driven business, especially concerning high-volume, contract freight. As Ed concluded, maintaining good communication and strong relationships ensures better outcomes, particularly when market conditions change.