Every January and July, I bring together some of the brightest minds in transportation, economics, and supply chain to discuss where the freight market stands, what's driving it, and where we believe it's headed next.
The goal isn't to make bold predictions. It's to better understand the forces shaping our industry by bringing together experts who approach freight from different perspectives. Some analyze the economy. Others study transportation markets, work directly with shippers, or lead strategy for some of the industry's largest logistics organizations.
This Mid-Year Market Update captures that discussion in a written format.
Rather than summarizing the conversation, we've organized the discussion by topic while preserving each panelist's original commentary. Responses have been lightly edited for readability by removing conversational filler and improving grammar, but each speaker's views, opinions, and predictions remain unchanged.
Whether you're a shipper, carrier, broker, or transportation professional, this discussion offers valuable insight into the market forces influencing the second half of 2026. Feel free to use this paper and transcript as a cited source in your own planning and research purposes.
Chief Commercial Officer | Flock Freight
Chris serves as Chief Commercial Officer at Flock Freight, where he helps lead the company's Shared Truckload® solution, an innovative approach that maximizes trailer utilization by allowing multiple shipments to move together on a single truckload.
In addition to his leadership role, Chris publishes the widely followed Pickett Line market newsletter through Pickett Research, providing data-driven analysis on freight market trends and transportation economics.
Chief Strategy Officer | Ease Logistics
Ken recently joined Ease Logistics as Chief Strategy Officer after serving as Chief of Analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics.
Throughout his career, Ken has helped shape how the industry understands freight markets through analytics, pricing strategy, and market intelligence. His experience offers a unique perspective from both transportation technology and brokerage operations.
Eli Broad Professor of Supply Chain Management | Michigan State University
Dr. Jason Miller is one of the transportation industry's leading academic researchers.
His work focuses on motor carrier economics, trucking regulation, supply chain management, and the intersection of freight markets and macroeconomics. His research is frequently referenced throughout the transportation industry and provides valuable context on how broader economic trends influence freight demand.
Independent Economist
Aaron Terrazas is an independent economist and consultant who previously served as Director of Economic Research at Convoy, Chief Economist at Glassdoor, and held economist roles at Zillow and the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
His work centers on labor markets, housing, consumer behavior, and the broader U.S. economy, providing important context for understanding freight demand.
Vice President of Market Intelligence | Arrive Logistics
David leads Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics, where he analyzes freight market conditions, transportation pricing, and carrier capacity to help customers navigate changing market dynamics.
Having spent more than a decade in transportation brokerage, David brings an operational perspective to market forecasting and strategy.
Host | Meet Me for Coffee
Samantha Jones is the host of Meet Me for Coffee, where she interviews leaders across transportation, supply chain, and economics to help make complex industry topics more accessible.
Through her market updates, podcasts, and written analysis, Samantha brings together industry experts to share practical insights that transportation professionals can apply to their businesses.
This discussion follows the natural progression of our live panel conversation and covers five key topics:
We hope you find this written edition as valuable as the live discussion. As always, the goal is not simply to forecast the market, but to better understand the forces shaping it so we can make more informed decisions together.
Question
At the beginning of the year, each of you shared your expectations for the freight market in 2026. Looking back at the first six months, what did you get right, what surprised you, and what lessons should we carry into the second half of the year?
Chief Strategy Officer, Ease Logistics
It's been interesting to move from an outside-looking-in role to being back inside an operating brokerage during this period. You get to test a lot of the things you were talking about without having real skin in the game.
Primary freight has obviously been very challenging, especially anything that was awarded in late 2025 or the first quarter of 2026. Spot freight, however, has been fertile hunting ground for brokerages.
The biggest takeaway for me has been relationships. If you're simply a transactional broker, it's very difficult to go back to your shipper and have conversations about changing market conditions. If you've built deep relationships, those conversations become much easier. Even then, every customer is different. There isn't a one-size-fits-all solution across an entire shipper portfolio.
Personally, I expected to spend 80–90% of my time focused on technology when I joined Ease. Instead, I've spent 80–90% of my time on pricing. That alone tells you how much has changed since we last spoke.
Earlier this year you were forecasting meaningful rate increases. Looking back now, what do you think caused rates to rise more than expected?
If I remember correctly, I was forecasting spot rates to finish up roughly 15–20% and contract rates around 8–12%. I'll probably come in light on the spot forecast.
What has surprised me is how stubborn contract pricing has been. We haven't seen the major indices pull contract rates higher yet, and I think that's simply because repricing efforts have lagged.
A lot of shippers haven't been able to mechanically reprice their routing guides as quickly as they'd like, so they've been offering temporary relief through accessorials on difficult lanes or higher-volume freight.
Once those repricing efforts work their way through the industry, I think we'll ultimately finish the year somewhere around 15–18% higher on the contract side.
Of course, I'm wrong for a living, so I may not be the best person to hold to those numbers.
Vice President of Market Intelligence, Arrive Logistics
January was an interesting point in time because my perspective was already beginning to shift, especially after the winter storm that hit Texas.
I remember running into Chris at Food Shippers, and he jokingly told me I'd eventually come around on my forecast.
At that point I had already started leaning toward a more inflationary outlook for freight, and I still feel good about that directional call.
What surprised me was the magnitude of the market's response.
My forecast expected roughly 28% year-over-year spot rate growth by June. We ended up exceeding that considerably.
Overall, I think we correctly anticipated the shape of the market. We expected increased seasonal reactions whenever disruption occurred. We've certainly seen that, but the degree of volatility has been much greater than I expected.
By January we were also starting to better understand what had happened on the carrier side of the equation and just how much pricing relief carriers truly needed after such an extended downturn.
Eli Broad Professor of Supply Chain Management, Michigan State University
I was forecasting spot rates to increase roughly 10–15% and contract rates around 5%, so the market has clearly shifted much more aggressively than I expected.
The biggest surprise for me was how quickly the inflection point occurred after the winter storms.
Instead of rates easing back down, conditions continued tightening, and then the Montgomery ruling in May accelerated everything even further.
Another surprise has been just how strong flatbed demand has become.
That strength is almost entirely tied to the physical buildout surrounding AI infrastructure. Data centers continue driving demand for steel, construction materials, electrical equipment, and other industrial inputs.
Coming into the year, I wasn't convinced that sector still had significant room to grow. Instead, we've seen tremendous expansion.
Given how strong that ecosystem has become, it's almost surprising the freight market isn't even tighter than it already is.
Chief Commercial Officer, Flock Freight
I went back and looked at what I submitted for our January discussion.
Originally I expected spot linehaul rates to finish the year around 30% above prior-year levels. By early February I increased that forecast to roughly 45%, and this month I raised it again to 60%.
I still believe spot rates have meaningful room to run.
My outlook coming into the year was largely driven by a supply-side cycle transition. Historically, freight recoveries begin with supply tightening rather than demand surging.
There wasn't much evidence of a major demand catalyst back in December or January, but I still believed rates could reach 30–35% simply because enough capacity had exited the market.
The biggest event none of us forecasted was the Iran conflict and the resulting spike in diesel prices.
Earlier this year I expected contract rates to finish roughly 6–7% higher year over year. I've since increased that outlook to approximately 15%.
Ironically, falling diesel prices could actually become another inflationary force for contract repricing.
One reason many routing guides have remained relatively stable is because fuel surcharge increases helped offset lower linehaul rates. As fuel surcharges begin falling, the all-in economics change. That could encourage more freight to spill into the spot market and create additional upward pressure on spot pricing.
The idea that diesel prices could fall while spot rates continue rising certainly wasn't on anyone's bingo card.
Directionally, I think many of us anticipated where the market was heading.
The magnitude has been far greater than expected.
Question
Looking beyond freight, what surprised you about the broader U.S. economy during the first half of the year? Which macroeconomic trends are proving most important for transportation as we move into the second half of 2026?
Independent Economist
Putting aside the oil shock, which I don't think anyone saw coming, I'd focus on two areas: the labor market and inflation.
Coming into the year, I was probably more optimistic about the labor market than the broader consensus.
Back in November and December, many economists believed hiring would slow significantly and eventually force the Federal Reserve to step in with rate cuts to support employment.
In conversations I had with small businesses throughout 2025, many had spent an entire year delaying investment decisions because of uncertainty. By the end of last year, many of those businesses were simply ready to move forward.
We began seeing that early this year.
As a result, we've had several surprisingly strong jobs reports. Today the labor market actually looks remarkably resilient.
The oil shock complicates that picture somewhat. If energy prices remain elevated for an extended period, businesses will naturally begin delaying some of those investment plans again.
My expectation is that June's jobs report will come in somewhat softer than what we've seen over the previous several months.
The other important macro story is inflation.
Much of today's inflation is still being driven by fuel costs, but even removing energy, we're operating in what I'd describe as an environment of uncomfortably high—but not disastrous—inflation.
We spent roughly a decade with inflation consistently running below the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Now we've quietly spent nearly five years operating above that target.
That's the environment businesses now have to understand because it affects investment decisions, asset pricing, and the overall cost of capital.
Question
We've started to see encouraging signals from manufacturing, including improvements in new orders and other leading indicators. What are those trends actually translating into across the economy, and where are we seeing the strongest impact on freight?
Eli Broad Professor of Supply Chain Management, Michigan State University
When you look at manufacturing, particularly the PMI measures, what you find is that manufacturing is expanding from a new orders standpoint, but it's highly sector-specific.
It's very similar to what we experienced in 2013 and 2014. Back then, growth was driven by capital investment tied to fracking and strong commodity prices that fueled demand for farm equipment.
Today, we're seeing another capital investment cycle, but this one is centered almost entirely around the physical AI ecosystem.
That includes steel production for data centers, data center racking, massive battery production, gas turbines for power generation, electrical equipment, and the supporting infrastructure required to build all of it.
At the same time, the consumer-oriented durable goods sector is struggling.
Furniture manufacturing remains weak. Reuters recently reported on Whirlpool's continued struggles, including downsizing operations in Iowa tied to lower refrigerator demand.
So we're seeing very distinct pockets of strength, and nearly all of them are tied to AI infrastructure investment.
That's very different from 2017 and 2018, when nearly every manufacturing sector was expanding, or even 2021, when virtually every industry was climbing out of the pandemic slowdown.
There's certainly strength today, but it's concentrated. At the same time, we're still seeing inflationary pressure on the producer side.
Aluminum has been a challenge. Plastics experienced pressure because of the recent conflict overseas, although that should begin to normalize.
The next major issue emerging is memory pricing, which I think companies will begin feeling over the next couple of quarters. Micron's earnings will be an important indicator to watch.
Question
Geopolitical events have once again created significant volatility in energy markets. Looking at where we are today, what risks remain around oil and diesel prices, and what should the industry be watching as we move through the rest of the year?
Chief Strategy Officer, Ease Logistics
If I could accurately forecast oil prices, I wouldn't be sitting here with all of you. I'd be in the Cayman Islands letting Claude run a Mac Mini in the background while making me millions of dollars.
What has surprised me most is that there are still a lot of shippers who prefer all-in rates. I genuinely don't understand it, especially among commodity shippers, who you would think know better.
By all-in rates, I mean combining fuel and linehaul into a single rate.
I think we're going to see a lot of reshuffling as those companies move through quarterly bid cycles that are often tied directly to their procurement and retail contracts.
That's where I'm seeing a lot of the back-and-forth today. Fuel prices went up, shippers received pressure from suppliers, and now fuel is coming back down. It'll be interesting to see how companies try to time the market during their next round of negotiations.
The paper market for oil futures is currently pricing in an almost perfect best-case scenario.
That assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains open, hostilities don't escalate again, and nothing unexpected happens elsewhere around the world.
From my perspective, that actually makes geopolitical risk one of the biggest wild cards for the remainder of the year.
I continue to watch Russia and Ukraine closely. If pressure on Russia intensifies, does Putin consider a dramatic escalation?
Back in 2022, we came uncomfortably close to scenarios that involved discussions around nuclear weapons.
Because of that, I see significantly more upside risk than downside risk for energy prices from this point forward.
The other geopolitical issue I'd keep an eye on isn't necessarily oil pricing itself.
It's the upcoming USMCA negotiations.
The agreement is due for review, and it sounds like the U.S. may soon communicate its intent regarding renewal while leaving the existing agreement in place during negotiations.
Any significant changes to USMCA deserve close attention because of the importance of North American trade to freight markets.
Question
During previous fuel spikes, many fuel surcharge programs struggled to keep pace with rapidly changing costs. Despite the lessons learned over the past several years, many carriers recently expressed similar concerns.
Has the industry truly adapted, or do we still need to rethink how fuel is managed in transportation contracts?
Chief Commercial Officer, Flock Freight
I don't think we've fundamentally learned anything new.
What made this fuel event unique was the speed at which prices changed.
Even companies with relatively healthy fuel surcharge programs often update those programs on monthly cycles or use trailing averages.
When market conditions change dramatically in a short period of time, those programs simply can't keep up.
Smaller carriers and brokers are especially vulnerable because they don't have the financial cushion to absorb those swings.
Now we're likely going to experience the same challenge in reverse.
If Jason's best-case scenario plays out and oil returns to February levels, diesel could fall quickly.
That creates another problem for anyone pricing contract freight today.
Typically, you calculate an all-in rate using current fuel assumptions, back out the expected fuel surcharge, and establish your linehaul rate from there.
If fuel surcharges decline significantly over the first few months of that contract, many of those assumptions become invalid.
That creates another layer of volatility for carriers, brokers, and shippers negotiating contracts today.
I still don't see the industry moving away from traditional monthly fuel surcharge programs anytime soon.
One additional point on fuel.
If we continue seeing repeated disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, even if they're temporary, they effectively establish a higher floor for energy pricing.
We'll still experience the normal swings that characterize energy markets, but the downside may not be as low as what we've historically considered normal.
That has implications well beyond freight.
Question
One final question before we move into today's freight market.
Given everything we've experienced recently, do you believe this changes how the industry thinks about fuel going forward, or do we eventually return to business as usual?
I think we'll ultimately return to business as usual.
The challenge isn't necessarily the fuel surcharge structure itself.
The challenge is the speed at which fuel prices can move.
When prices move that quickly, no traditional monthly program can perfectly keep pace.
That's simply a limitation of how most contracts are structured today.
Question
Let's shift our focus to where we are today. How should we interpret the current state of the U.S. freight market, and where do you see conditions heading over the next three to six months?
Vice President of Market Intelligence, Arrive Logistics
We're operating in a market that's still experiencing disruption.
The biggest need right now is a reset of contract pricing.
Contract routing guides remain behind the market, and we continue to see that reflected in persistently elevated tender rejection rates.
What's been interesting is that during periods where the market has stabilized, we haven't seen spot rates collapse. That tells me the underlying market remains fundamentally tight.
Everything we're seeing points toward a broader contract repricing effort as we move into the third quarter. Many shippers are targeting that timeframe and are looking at six-month agreements that bridge them into the first quarter of next year, when there may be an opportunity for greater stability.
Ultimately, the biggest question is whether the industry can respond by adding enough capacity.
Historically, trucking has been incredibly good at adding capacity when pricing improves.
This cycle is different because we have several significant headwinds working against that response, including regulatory changes and the Supreme Court ruling.
We'll see whether enough new capacity comes online once contract pricing resets to higher levels.
Chief Commercial Officer, Flock Freight
To build on that, I think everything we've seen so far has largely been driven by supply.
Demand really hasn't contributed in a meaningful way yet.
The reason I increased my forecast to roughly 60% year-over-year spot rate growth is because I believe demand is finally beginning to participate.
Consumer spending has remained resilient.
Industrial production has largely held steady.
Two of the truckload demand indicators I watch most closely are the ATA Freight Tonnage Index and Cass Freight Shipments.
ATA turned inflationary on a year-over-year basis for the first time since 2022.
Cass Freight Shipments is still showing year-over-year declines, but it's finally moving in the right direction. I wouldn't be surprised to see that turn positive sometime next quarter.
I also think inventories are beginning to adjust lower.
Earlier this year, many people expected importers to rush inventory into the country ahead of potential tariff changes.
That surge never really materialized.
Now inventories are starting to decline, which could create healthier freight demand moving forward.
At the same time, I think this supply cycle is much less elastic than previous recoveries.
Think back to COVID.
Spot rates increased more than 50% year over year, and it was incredibly easy to bring new capacity into the market.
Affordable used equipment was readily available.
Drivers entered the industry quickly.
Today, that's no longer the case.
Fleets haven't been able to buy equipment at the same pace because pricing has remained elevated.
Large carriers are beginning to catch up, but there isn't nearly as much equipment flowing into the secondary market.
At the same time, barriers to entry for new drivers are considerably higher.
Supply will eventually respond—it always does—but I believe it'll take longer this cycle.
That creates the potential for higher freight rates to persist longer than many people expect while the market searches for a new equilibrium.
Chris, you mentioned that supply will eventually find a way. Do you think this market favors larger carriers continuing to grow, or will we also see smaller carriers and owner-operators return?
That's where the Montgomery ruling becomes especially interesting.
Historically, whenever spot rates rise significantly, we've seen owner-operators separate from larger fleets, obtain their own operating authority, and enter the market independently.
Digital freight marketplaces have made that transition even easier over the past several years.
When the market eventually turns back down, many of those carriers either leave the industry or return to larger fleets.
This cycle may be different.
Many brokers are becoming much more selective about who they'll work with.
Requirements such as having an operating authority that's active for a certain period of time or demonstrating a longer operating history may make it more difficult for brand-new carriers to enter the market.
I think there's a case to be made both ways.
The largest carriers will certainly continue growing because they're viewed as stable, secure partners.
At the same time, entrepreneurial owner-operators always seem to find a way into the market when opportunities exist.
One of the biggest questions throughout this recovery has been where new capacity actually comes from.
Beyond regulations, fleets are facing higher equipment costs, maintenance costs, insurance costs, and driver shortages.
How quickly can capacity realistically return under those conditions?
Eli Broad Professor of Supply Chain Management, Michigan State University
I do think capacity will begin coming back.
We'll likely start seeing meaningful additions late in the fourth quarter and throughout 2027.
Current pricing signals are strong enough that the supply side will eventually respond.
I don't think it'll happen nearly as quickly as it did during 2018 and 2019, and certainly not as dramatically as what we experienced during 2020 through 2022.
The number of Class 8 truck orders we're seeing today is simply too large to represent replacement demand alone.
There is expansion occurring.
It's just going to happen more gradually.
As for where the drivers come from, trucking has consistently demonstrated an ability to attract labor whenever wages increase.
As driver pay rises, people begin reconsidering trucking as a career.
We've seen that throughout history.
Even during the tight labor market of the 1990s, the trucking industry successfully added hundreds of thousands of drivers.
So I don't think labor availability ultimately prevents capacity from returning.
The process will simply be slower this time.
That's supportive of higher freight rates.
The bigger wildcard for me is demand.
Specifically, what does the Federal Reserve do with interest rates?
I wouldn't be surprised if we see one or even two additional rate hikes this year.
Historically, every time we've entered a period of rising interest rates, trucking demand has cooled relatively quickly.
We saw that in late 2018.
We saw it again beginning in 2022.
Single-family housing isn't likely to recover this year.
Consumer spending on durable goods also isn't likely to rebound meaningfully during the second half.
The AI infrastructure boom remains the primary source of economic growth, but if higher interest rates begin weighing on demand, that becomes an important headwind.
Overall, I think the market remains favorable for carriers through the rest of this year and into 2027 because supply is returning slowly.
Longer term, however, demand becomes the bigger question.
If geopolitical events were to push oil prices back to $120 or $150 per barrel, all of those assumptions would need to be revisited.
Question
Jason touched on housing and interest rates, two areas that have weighed heavily on freight over the last several years. From your perspective, where does housing fit into the outlook, and where are you seeing pockets of economic strength or weakness as we move through the second half of the year?
Independent Economist
This is such an important point because aggregate economic numbers often hide more stories than they reveal.
I think all of us would probably agree that the recovery we've seen so far has largely been driven by the supply side.
The real debate now is what happens on the demand side.
As I look toward the rest of the year, I struggle to identify where a significant demand catalyst comes from.
Consumer spending has certainly been resilient, but it's also fragile.
It's relatively narrow and continues to be driven by higher-income consumers.
Housing has essentially been flat, if not declining, across much of the country.
We're seeing double-digit home value declines in parts of the Southeast.
Homebuilders are increasingly relying on incentives and margin concessions to move inventory.
That points to underlying weakness in the housing market.
When we talk about interest rates, it's important to remember that it's not only short-term rates that matter.
Jason mentioned the Federal Reserve becoming more hawkish, but businesses making long-term investment decisions care just as much about long-term interest rates.
Beyond inflation and employment, the Federal Reserve is also thinking about the country's balance sheet and the amount of debt that's accumulated over the past decade and a half.
That creates a broader shift in how we think about where long-term interest rates ultimately settle.
Those long-term rates matter most for businesses investing in assets with ten-year or longer depreciation cycles.
Housing faces both cyclical and structural challenges.
Persistently high interest rates continue to weigh on demand today.
Longer term, demographics become another important factor.
Baby Boomers are approaching their eighties.
Historically, homeowners don't begin significantly downsizing until roughly age 83 to 85.
Over the next five years, we'll begin seeing more housing inventory enter the market simply because of demographic trends.
That has the potential to reshape housing dynamics in ways many of us haven't experienced during our careers.
Question
Let's shift back toward freight pricing.
What conversations are taking place today between brokers, carriers, and shippers? After several years of false starts and temporary market disruptions, were shippers hesitant to believe this rate increase was different?
Chief Strategy Officer, Ease Logistics
I think the dam has finally broken.
Any of the remaining holdouts have largely disappeared.
As painful as it is to say, I think anyone still refusing to acknowledge where the market is today is either packing up their office or about to be.
This reminds me a lot of 2018.
One moment that has always stuck with me was when General Mills had to restate earnings because of increased transportation costs.
After that, procurement professionals across the industry suddenly understood what had happened.
It felt like an industry-wide reset.
This year has certainly been uneven.
You could have argued during Roadcheck Week that higher rates were simply a temporary response.
Then the week after Roadcheck, everyone got hit again.
Looking back, Montgomery probably became the watershed moment.
At the same time, I don't think anyone on this panel believed rates were going lower in 2026.
The cycle had already begun turning during the fourth quarter of last year.
I don't think anyone expected it to turn this aggressively.
Looking ahead, I don't believe the regulatory environment alone permanently changes capacity.
There's a lot of attention surrounding FMCSA activity and immigration enforcement today, but I still believe capacity eventually comes back.
I don't think we're returning to the Burt Reynolds era of trucking.
I think we'll reach greater levels of automation before we ever return to a market that's primarily rebuilt through domestic driver growth alone.
Supply will eventually meet demand.
Peak season will probably be difficult.
We'll likely experience the normal slowdown after the Fourth of July, and sometime during 2027 we'll move over the crest of this cycle and brokers will finally be able to breathe again.
Chief Commercial Officer, Flock Freight
One thing that's worth remembering is that only recently have many spot market carriers actually become consistently profitable again.
Spot rates increased rapidly, but diesel prices rose almost immediately behind them.
Much of the additional operating income carriers should have enjoyed was absorbed by higher fuel costs.
If diesel returns to February levels and the Strait of Hormuz remains open, those operating margins begin expanding again.
That's when the spot market becomes much more attractive financially.
At that point, the supply side will inevitably respond.
The market will eventually discover whatever rate is necessary to attract enough compliant capacity to restore equilibrium.
That's simply how freight markets work.
Chris makes a great point.
One mistake all of us make from time to time is taking one extraordinary lane and assuming it represents the entire market.
We'll see someone post a $15,000 refrigerated load from Arizona to the Northeast and suddenly people assume every carrier is making that kind of money.
That's simply not reality.
One of the studies we completed while I was still at DAT looked at carrier behavior during the recent fuel spike.
Approximately 18% of responding fleets were actively parking trucks.
Most carriers weren't expanding.
They were taking their oldest equipment out of service and reducing operations in their least profitable markets.
Fuel remains a very real cost issue.
Those headline spot market rates weren't enough to offset the financial pressure many carriers were experiencing.
One thing I'd add is that this wasn't only happening in the spot market.
Contract carriers were dealing with the exact same challenge.
Fuel prices were changing so quickly—especially in states like California—that many weekly fuel surcharge programs simply couldn't keep up.
I had fleets operating more than one hundred trucks tell me they were losing tens of thousands of dollars every week because fuel surcharge calculations were always lagging the actual cost of fuel.
Those carriers never recovered that money.
Even if they managed to negotiate higher contract rates, rapidly increasing fuel costs erased those gains almost immediately.
It's important to understand each carrier's specific situation.
Where were they buying fuel?
What lanes were they operating?
How much fuel exposure did they have?
Those answers varied significantly across the industry.
I don't claim to know everything.
But I can confidently say the sales team at Breakthrough Fuel probably had a record quarter.
I'd be lying if I said I hadn't already thought that.
I think you're going to see a lot of new business coming out of companies like that after everything that's happened.
Question
As carriers begin growing again, they're going to need drivers, equipment, and higher operating budgets.
Does that mean the industry is establishing a permanently higher baseline for freight rates?
Vice President of Market Intelligence, Arrive Logistics
There are really several questions wrapped into that.
Starting with the shipper perspective, I absolutely think we've seen a shift in mindset.
At the same time, it's hard to blame shippers for being cautious.
Every recent increase in rates has been tied to a specific event.
Whether it was Fern, the conflict with Iran, rising fuel prices, Roadcheck Week, seasonal demand, or irregular shipping patterns, each disruption eventually faded.
Because of that history, it's understandable that many procurement teams wanted to wait before making significant pricing changes.
What's interesting is that once those disruptions passed, spot rates never fully collapsed.
That matters.
We're operating in a vulnerable market.
Large spot market swings will continue whenever disruption occurs until contract pricing catches up.
The first sign of long-term stability won't be spot rates.
It will be improving tender acceptance.
Once contract routing guides are repriced high enough that carriers consistently accept primary freight again, we'll begin reducing pressure on the spot market.
That's the key indicator I'll be watching during the third and fourth quarters.
Between Independence Day and Thanksgiving, there typically aren't many major seasonal disruptions outside of Labor Day or quarter-end shipping.
That creates a meaningful period of relative stability.
If current pricing holds through that period, I think there's a legitimate opportunity for today's market to establish the new floor for contract pricing.
Ultimately, the duration of this cycle still depends on how quickly capacity returns, especially if demand continues improving.
From my perspective, the market remains inflationary at least into next year.
Given how much higher rates are today than they were only a few months ago, it's difficult to envision year-over-year comparisons turning negative before May or June of next year at the earliest.
Question
As we wrap up, I'd like each of you to leave us with two things.
First, what's one prediction you'd be willing to stand behind when we look back six months from now?
Second, what advice would you give brokers, carriers, or shippers as they navigate the remainder of the year?
Chief Commercial Officer, Flock Freight
I think the cyclical recovery is well underway.
A lot of events have masked what's really been happening beneath the surface. We've had weather disruptions, the Supreme Court ruling, rising diesel prices, and other short-term events dominate the headlines.
What has really been driving the spot market is that enough capacity finally exited during 2024 and 2025 to shift the market back toward supply scarcity.
Ironically, the same forces that prolonged the freight recession are now accelerating the recovery.
The rapid exit of capacity, combined with new compliance requirements and rising operating costs, has tightened the market significantly.
I don't believe rates are coming back down in any meaningful way anytime soon.
Whether spot rates ultimately peak at 40%, 50%, or 60% year over year doesn't really matter.
Contract rates are going to reset higher.
Eventually, the market will attract enough new capacity and reach equilibrium again.
That's simply how freight cycles work.
One thing I'd continue watching is diesel.
If diesel prices continue falling, it could actually place more pressure on contract routing guides, causing additional freight to spill into the spot market and creating even more upward pressure on spot rates.
I also believe supply will respond more slowly this cycle than it has historically.
Long term, the companies that perform best will be the ones with strong supply partnerships.
Most carriers aren't abandoning every contract lane to chase the spot market.
The shippers that maintained healthy relationships with their carrier base throughout the downturn will be in a much better position than those who continually repriced every contract lower during the freight recession.
Technology also becomes increasingly important during periods like this.
I'm not talking only about artificial intelligence.
I'm talking about visibility.
Understanding what's happening inside your routing guide.
Knowing which carriers are accepting freight, which aren't, and having the information necessary to adjust quickly.
The companies with the right partnerships, the right people, and the right technology will be in a very good position moving forward.
Chief Strategy Officer, Ease Logistics
My advice is simple.
Don't become too reactive.
We've seen this movie before.
The market is going to stay busy for a while, and then it's going to slow down.
It always does.
Between the Fourth of July and Labor Day, I think we're going to experience what could feel like a bit of fool's gold.
People will start saying the market has already turned back down or that everything was just another temporary spike.
The reality is we still don't have a perfectly clear picture of capacity because of the recent regulatory changes and everything surrounding the MOTUS transition.
I still expect peak season to be challenging.
We're already working with our shipper partners to build playbooks, establish pricing strategies, and prepare now rather than reacting later.
They've appreciated having those conversations before peak arrives.
More broadly, I'd encourage everyone to come into work every day looking for ways to optimize.
One thing that's really stood out to me since returning to brokerage is how willing people in this industry are to share ideas with one another.
That doesn't happen in every industry.
I've learned a tremendous amount simply by reading what others are posting and by having conversations with peers.
Be willing to adjust your strategy.
Don't become locked into one position or one assumption.
This market is changing too quickly for that.
Eli Broad Professor of Supply Chain Management, Michigan State University
I agree with much of what's already been said.
I expect rates to remain elevated through the remainder of this year.
We're simply not going to see enough new capacity enter the market during the second half of 2026 to materially change that.
More capacity will begin arriving during 2027.
The biggest recommendation I'd give is to prepare for multiple scenarios.
Don't build your business around a single outlook.
Ask yourself what happens if oil stays around $70 per barrel.
Then ask what happens if it moves to $90.
Then ask what happens if it reaches $120 or higher.
Build operating plans for each scenario.
I would also encourage everyone to pay close attention to diesel futures and gasoline futures.
Those are ultimately the prices consumers and businesses will experience.
The other area I'd watch very closely is AI capital spending.
If the hyperscalers continue investing hundreds of billions of dollars into physical infrastructure, that remains an enormous tailwind for freight.
If those investment plans begin slowing, that would become a meaningful headwind because AI infrastructure is currently one of the largest drivers of freight demand in the U.S. economy.
Until housing recovers and consumer spending on durable goods improves, AI capital investment remains one of the most important indicators for our industry.
Independent Economist
I agree with much of what's already been discussed.
Freight cycles are ultimately driven by the constant interaction between supply and demand.
Sometimes I joke that it's less of a cat-and-mouse game and more of a rat-and-cat game because it's not always obvious who's chasing whom.
Looking ahead over the next five to six months, I remain cautious about demand.
Consumers have proven remarkably resilient, but they're also fragile.
After everything they've experienced over the past several years, I think most households remain cautious.
That has to remain the base case.
Retailers and wholesalers are largely planning around that same assumption.
If we experience a surprise, I don't think it's likely to come from weaker consumer demand.
The bigger surprise would be stronger-than-expected demand.
That could come from lower interest rates or another catalyst that gives consumers greater confidence to spend.
My base case remains relatively flat consumer demand.
The larger upside risk is that consumers surprise us by spending more than expected.
Vice President of Market Intelligence, Arrive Logistics
Even with this panel, there's still a tremendous amount of uncertainty surrounding the freight market.
That uncertainty makes flexibility incredibly important.
If I were giving advice to shippers today, flexibility would be the word I'd emphasize.
Shrinking your carrier network may have been an acceptable strategy during the freight recession.
I'm not convinced it's the right strategy today.
Continue building options.
Know who you're doing business with.
Understand your partners from both a safety and liability perspective.
Manage risk carefully.
If possible, shorten your contract terms to reasonable timeframes and preserve flexibility within your transportation budget.
Doing so allows you to strengthen carrier partnerships without locking yourself into either the highest or lowest point of the market for an extended period.
Eventually, this market will turn again.
Maintaining flexibility today gives you the ability to adapt when it does.
The first half of 2026 reminded us that freight markets rarely follow a straight line.
While weather events, fuel volatility, geopolitical conflict, and regulatory changes all influenced day-to-day market conditions, the panel reached broad agreement on one central theme: the recovery has been driven primarily by supply, not demand.
Looking ahead, the questions become less about whether the market has turned and more about how long elevated pricing can persist, how quickly capacity returns, and whether demand can strengthen enough to sustain the current cycle.
As always, the next six months will provide the answers—and we'll be back at year-end to see which predictions proved correct.
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